Say No to NATO
Following the Russian-U.S. reset, a new American policy institute has opened in Kiev to dissuade Ukraine from its bid to Join NATO. Its fellows argue that Ukrainian NATO membership would be bad for both the United States and Ukraine. But while their message is in tune with Ukrainian public opinion, they face an up-hill struggle convincing the foreign policy establishment in both countries.
“Ukraine’s NATO membership is not in Ukraine’s interests. Nor is it in U.S. interests. All that it will create is a nuclear trip wire at the heart of Europe,” argued Anthony Salvia, director of the American Institute in Ukraine (AIU), a non-commercial organization founded this year in Kiev, funded by U.S. citizens. “In Ukraine, U.S. opinion is often represented as being monolithically in favor of Ukraine’s future membership of NATO,” he added. “We’re here in Kiev to show this is definitely not the case.”
AIU is unique in being an American organization campaigning overseas against NATO expansion. “Other American organizations in Ukraine, many of which are funded by the U.S. government, actively promote Ukraine's entry into NATO at the earliest possible date, despite the fact the majority of Ukraine's population is opposed to NATO accession,” said Salvia, who served in Ronald Reagan’s White House.
The AIU is aligned, but not affiliated, with the Nixon Center, headed by legendary former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and which publishes the influential journal “National Interest”. In March 2009, the Nixon Center released a review of Russian-U.S. relations arguing that Ukrainian or Georgian NATO membership “could decrease rather than increase Europe’s overall security.” The review called for U.S. policy makers to “work closely with U.S. allies to develop options other than NATO membership to demonstrate a commitment to [Ukrainian and Georgian] sovereignty.”
“The U.S. should refrain from making promises to Ukraine it cannot honor, but which might embolden Ukraine to provoke a conflict. The Ukrainians should realize that the US will never fight Russia over Ukraine,” argued Doug Bando, senior analyst at the conservative Cato institute, and a recent AIU guest speaker in Kiev. The August 2008 Georgian war looms in the minds of all those warning against extending NATO deep into the unstable former Soviet Union. “Ukraine must learn to rely on its own resources for securing its sovereignty, and not to trust to U.S. promises,” said Bando.
“Ukrainian NATO membership, by ruining relations with Russia, would make Ukraine less secure than it is, not more. And it would also harm U.S. security, by ruining the chances for cooperation with Russia over vital issues such as Afghanistan, North Korea and Iran, all issues that the new administration has said it will prioritize,” agreed Salvia.
“There are other mechanisms available for strengthening Ukrainian security,” he added. “One is a new European security treaty, similar to that being proposed by Dmitry Medvedev. The other is for European Union membership. The Kremlin is basically open toward Ukraine’s future EU membership, especially if it is an alternative to Ukraine’s NATO membership”.
Reset in Action
The AIU is in fact part of a wider battle waged over the new U.S. administration’s Russia policy. U.S. President Barack Obama has famously called for “pressing the reset button” in Russian-U.S. relations, but he is advised on Russia by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Michael McFaul, both historic advocates of a tough line with Russia. “We hope Obama listens to a wider range of opinion,” said Salvia.
Underlining the potential of cooperation with Russia, on the other hand, last week’s Moscow summit between Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev saw the Russians sensationally agree to the United States transiting weaponry through Russia to Afghanistan.
And equally sensationally, although little noticed in the West, Obama, speaking to Moscow students, said that NATO membership would require a majority of any country’s population to be in favor – which is not the case in Ukraine. He also said that America would not press any country to join the alliance.
Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership, and Russia’s adamant opposition to this, put the United States in a bind. Washington is unwilling to openly privilege Russian interests over Ukrainian. Changing the situation on the ground in Ukraine could help U.S. policy makers out of this dilemma, hopes the AIU.
It should also not be too hard, given that Ukraine public opinion is solidly anti-NATO. Polls have consistently shown support for joining NATO to hover at around only 20 percent of respondents, with over 50 percent against.
But at the other end of the scale, Ukraine’s powerful foreign policy bureaucracy has an entrenched ideological commitment to joining the military alliance, according to Yelena Biberman, a U.S. embassy policy specialist engaged in research on Ukraine’s foreign ministry.
“Foreign ministry officials are ideologically anti-Russian and nationalist to the extent that they may not always be able to objectively assess Ukraine’s real national interests,” said Biberman, who has interviewed many top foreign ministry officials. “They believe that Russia is inherently imperialistic and bent on regaining control over Ukraine as a step to rebuilding its empire, and NATO membership is the only way to stop this. Even for a new Ukrainian president, it will be very hard to change their perspective.”
This means that for AIU, it is work with opinion makers in the media that matters most. “We don’t engage in lobbying, but work exclusively in the public field holding conferences, talks and round table discussions,” said Salvia. “What we are trying to tell Ukrainians is simply that you can be pro-America and pro-European without having to want to join NATO.”