Yanukovych and Tymoshenko:
An American Polling Analysis of the February 7 Showdown

The Second Round vote between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko promises to be a milestone in Ukraine’s democratic development. Both domestic and international observers gave favorable marks to the conduct of the First Round of the vote on January 17, and hopes are high that the February 7 face-off between two bitter rivals will be decided at the ballot box in a free and fair vote.

Gene Ulm, a Partner in Public Opinion Strategies, one of America’s most highly regarded polling firms, will look at the strengths and weaknesses that will propel one or the other candidate into the presidential palace. James George Jatras, Deputy Director, American Institute in Ukraine, will moderate and comment.

Specific topics to be addressed include:

• What vulnerabilities and strong points did Yanukovych and Tymoshenko display in the First Round, and what does either have to do to win in the Second Round? Conversely, where are the possibilities either will stumble?
• What will be the impact of the candidates who didn’t make it to the Second Round, and what is their possibility of “throwing their votes” toward either candidate? How much of the First Round vote will stay home on February 7, and what will be the impact of the undecided or “against both” voters?
• Compared to the 2004 election, outside influences in the 2010 vote seem less of a factor. What dangers exist for last-minute interference in the electoral process?

Gene Ulm is a Partner in one Public Opinion Strategies (www.pos.org) and is one of the Republican Party's leading political strategists and pollsters. He has extensive experience polling on behalf of successful U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, congressional and state legislative campaigns since 1990. His political clients include Senators, Members of Congress, mayors, legislative caucuses and business and trade-oriented independent expenditure committees. Gene was one of the first U.S. pollsters to predict an upset in the January 19, 2010, special election in the U.S. Senate, where anti-incumbent discontent propelled a Republican into the Massachusetts seat held by the late Ted Kennedy. Gene has also worked for many successful legislative initiatives and has polled on ballot issues, and he has also polled on behalf of winning campaigns in New Zealand, Australia and Russia.

James George Jatras is a principal in a public advocacy firm based in Washington, DC. Prior to entering the private sector he was senior foreign policy adviser to the Republican leadership of the United States Senate. He earlier served as as an American Foreign Service Officer, where among other assignments he was assigned to the (then) Office of Soviet Union Affairs.